What a Long Strange Trip it's Been
The birth dearth
Alwin, Almeida and Hardy all agree on this: America's 1946-64 Baby Boom cohorts would probably not have created such an economic challenge if the post World War II cohorts had continued the procreating trend. Instead, they tended to delay marriage until later in life and had comparatively small families, causing the overall population balance to tilt below "replacement rate" levels of 2.1 babies per woman.
This "birth dearth" may have been influenced, says Hardy, by the number of Boomer women juggling careers and motherhood as well as environmental concerns about overpopulation. "The leading edge of the Boomers will be the first where many married women have a continuous work history," she remarks, adding "I'm a Baby Boomer and when I started my career, I had a child who was not quite three. There were few choices in daycare programs."
Hell no, we won't go
As we contemplate the Boomers' future, Hardy reminds me, it's important to acknowledge that retirement is not an option for everyone. Whether by choice (in defiance of the aging process itself) or by financial necessity, many Boomers will continue working well past the typical retirement age of 65.
Says Hardy, "It used to be that the labor market was something people moved into for 30 or 35 years and then exited through disability or retirement." But that's not always the case any more. "A growing number of workers move in and out of retirement, in and out of employment, through stages of partial retirement. The transition to retirement has become more prolonged and more complex."
There are several reasons for the shift, she explains. The Boomers divorced in greater numbers than earlier generations, and "if you want to see your wealth plummet, get divorced."
Another factor behind having to work past 'normal' retirement age: failure to save. "What saving really means," Hardy asserts, "is being able to vividly imagine yourself ten or twenty years from now and think about who you want that future person to be and what kind of circumstances you want that person to be able to enjoy. People who can't defer their wants into the future contribute to a credit based, high debt society—and that's what we have today."
Teach your children well
We pause in our conversation for a moment while Hardy takes a call from her grown daughter. It seems a good moment to ask a question lingering on my mind. "What legacy have the Boomers handed down to their children?"
Hardy smiles. "As a child, I had both a savings account at the local bank and a coin bank in my room. Saving was something I was taught to do at a young age." But according to a January 2006 Commerce Department report, the 2005 national savings rate was minus 0.5 percent. Although the savings rate has been declining for 15 years, it hasn't been negative since the early 1930s.
"Many Boomer parents bought everything for our kids without showing them how to save for what they wanted; we gave them allowances, but gave them no responsibility for chores; so we helped form their expectations of immediate wish fulfillment." As a result, by the time a kid graduates from college today, they may have a car, a stereo, a TV, and lots of other electronics, but it's also not unusual for them to have thousands of dollars of credit card debt and thousands of dollars in student loans."
"I always ask my students at what age they envision retiring," Hardy concludes, "and their answers keep getting younger and younger. But that's not going to happen. Isn't it the Boomers' responsibility to help the younger generations to get real about their expectations?
"I think our biggest challenge is to find a way to pass the country on in at least as good shape as it was when we inherited it. We're currently on a track of increasing cynicism, broken promises, and false expectations. I don't think Baby Boomers want that to be their legacy."
David Almeida, Ph.D. is associate professor of human development and family studies. He can be contacted at dalmeida@psu.edu. Duane Alwin, Ph.D., director of Penn State's Center on Population Health and Aging, and McCourtney professor of sociology and human development, can be reached at dalwin@pop.psu.edu. Melissa Hardy is director of the Penn State Gerontology Center and distinguished professor of human development and family studies, sociology and demography. Her email address is mah38@psu.edu.