The price of power
Can hydrogen stack up to the competition?
A conversation with Tim Considine
There's an economist at the hydrogen energy party and he's not afraid to speak his mind. "I hate to sound like a pessimist," says Tim Considine, professor of natural resource economics at Penn State. "But the simple fact is hydrogen is not economical, and it's unlikely to be for quite some time."
What's in the way? According to Considine, production costs, major technical hurdles, and society's reluctance to pay the true cost of burning fossil fuels, to name just a few obstacles.
Can hydrogen compete at the pump?Photo by Emily Rowlands
According to a 2004 report from the National Academy of Engineering, "the vision of the hydrogen economy is based on the expectation that hydrogen can be produced from domestic energy sources in a manner that is affordable and environmentally benign," and that "applications using hydrogen — fuel cell vehicles, for example — can gain market share in competition with the alternatives."
The conclusion of the committee that authored the report? A transition to a hydrogen economy is, at best, decades away.
Considine agrees. "We have a long way to go."
Former associate editor Dana Bauer sat down with Tim Considine to learn more about the direction—and challenges—of hydrogen research.
Q: Gas is cheap. How can hydrogen compete?
A: You can make a case that if one were to internalize all the external effects from burning gasoline — these might be air pollution, health effects, the amount of money that we're spending directly and indirectly on the military to protect world oil lands — one could calculate that the true social cost of oil is not $30 to $40 a barrel, it's at least $100 a barrel.
So, if you believe that, the corrective policy is to put a tax on gasoline. If the social cost of oil is $50 a barrel, say, you divide that by 42 gallons in a barrel, that's more than a $1 tax per gallon of gasoline. But tell me what politician would be willing to put a tax of a dollar on gasoline?
So that's the essence of the problem. We're not paying the true cost of gasoline. The point is that hydrogen and alternative fuels have to compete in that type of market.
Also there is competition from the good old internal combustion engine. Don't rule it out. Automakers have been improving the internal combustion engine on a steady basis over the past ten years and it's likely to improve even further both in terms of fuel efficiency and power output.
Q: What are the biggest challenges facing hydrogen research?
A: Right now, producing hydrogen is expensive and energy intensive. It takes about six gallons of gasoline to make and compress a little over two pounds of hydrogen, which carries about the same amount of energy as a gallon of gasoline.
The biggest producer of hydrogen is the oil industry. Coal and natural gas are alternative ways to fuel hydrogen production, but at some point we're going to have to go nuclear. We'll run out of oil and natural gas.
Researchers also need to develop efficient and affordable fuel cell technologies and a safe and economical means of storing hydrogen aboard vehicles.
Q: Will consumers go for hydrogen-powered vehicles?
A: What do consumers want in vehicles? They want safety and they want space. Granted, there's a segment of the population that's happy driving small cars, but it's a small segment. Most of the market, more than 50 percent, is after space and safety.
The other thing is that cars are becoming electronic platforms for gadgets — DVD players, stereos. Cars are becoming power plants and they have more creature comfort features that consume energy. That's a real demand on the engine to produce power.
Also, think about this: You have a hydrogen vehicle and someone comes along and says, 'Hey, we can sell you a Chevy Suburban that seats eight and gets 40 miles a gallon.' Don't rule it out. You could see a dramatic increase in fuel economy among the SUVs. Right now there's no great incentive, but the technology is there to do it.
What will it take for consumers to purchase hydrogen vehicles?Photo by Leslie Eudy (DOE/NREL)
Q: Will automakers make hydrogen vehicles?
A: Automakers are risk averse. Increasingly, these companies are in the service business. You've seen the warranties go up in the past 10 years. They all have to have solid service and repair networks. So when you're talking about switching to a new kind of vehicle, you're talking about a radical change in the whole service infrastructure. Making these changes is a huge logistical challenge for the automakers. It's capital intensive. It has to evolve. You're not going to see these changes happen very quickly.
Q: Are hybrid vehicles a good way to test the waters?
A: Automakers are learning about that technology, too. When they build these hybrids, they don't know how long they're going to last. The engineers can estimate, but you don't really know until consumers start to use them and get them into the repair network.
Most of the major car companies have hybrids on the market. You see more hybrids in Japan. California is a good market for hybrids. Some of the car companies are talking about bringing hydrogen cars to market in the 2010 to 2020 time frame. They'd be sort of sliding into the same market that hybrids are in now.
Q: Why is the idea of a hydrogen economy so popular? What are the steps to getting there?
A: I'm focusing on transportation, because that seems to be where the big push for hydrogen is. One of my main motivations is that scientists, engineers, and politicians see the great promise of hydrogen as a clean fuel, no pollution. That's the nirvana that everyone's looking for.
Politically, it's very attractive. A lot of areas in the country have real air quality problems. Something has to be done. Hydrogen may be a solution. It's just going to take a while.
There is now a cottage hydrogen industry that's feeding off of federal support and most of the major automakers are conducting research and development on hydrogen fuel cells. These programs will continue.
And there's a legitimate case for research and development. There could be a dramatic breakthrough in fuel cell operation. There have already been significant reductions in fuel cell operating costs because material scientists have been able to reduce the amount of platinum used in fuel cell catalysts. There could be other similar materials science based innovations — special membranes to store hydrogen at a higher density, for example.
So technology changes and advances and you don't know when it's going to happen. But it's a race because conventional technology is getting more efficient as well.
Tim Considine, Ph.D., is professor of natural resource economics in the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences; cpw@psu.edu.
